Research SummaryWhy are fires more frequent and intense?

British Columbia has experienced its four worst wildfire seasons (2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023) in just the past seven years. People in B.C. are now facing the reality of more frequent and intense wildfires. But what's causing this?

Dr. Mike Flannigan and co-researchers set out to investigate trends in wildfire activity and fire-conducive weather.

In their study, “Abrupt, Climate-Induced Increases in Wildfire in British Columbia Since the mid-2000s,” they analyzed climate and fire data to explore these trends.

Key findings

Over the past century, B.C. has seen noticeable changes in temperature, rainfall, and a combined measure of both, which is called moisture deficit.

Specifically, Flannigan and team found that after declining for a century, wildfire activity started rising again from 2005 onward.

At the same time, there was a significant decline in the wetting trend of the twentieth century. Additionally, the long-term trend of getting wetter reversed, despite high rainfall, because faster warming is causing the land to dry out more due to increased evaporation.

Other factors consistently affecting fire activity include past wildfires, insect outbreaks, and land-use practices like logging, farming, grazing, and building cities. These elements continue to shape the fire landscape significantly.

Takeaway

Flannigan and team stress that an essential step in adapting to the growing wildfire threat is realizing and accepting that B.C. is now in a new and unpredictable era of fires.

Authors

Marc-André Parisien, Quinn E. Barber, Mathieu L. Bourbonnais, Lori D. Daniels, Mike Flannigan, Robert W. Gray, Kira M. Hoffman, Piyush Jain, Scott L. Stephens, Steve W. Taylor, Ellen Whitman

MLA Citation

Parisien, Marc-André, et al. “Abrupt, Climate-Induced Increases in Wildfire in British Columbia Since the mid-2000s.” Nature, vol. 4, no. 309, Sept. 2023. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00977-1